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Filc, W., Köhler, C. (Eds.) (1999). Macroeconomic Causes of Unemployment: Diagnosis and Policy Recommendations /. Makroökonomische Ursachen der Arbeitslosigkeit: Diagnose und Therapievorschläge. Duncker & Humblot. https://doi.org/10.3790/978-3-428-49758-4
Filc, Wolfgang and Köhler, Claus. Macroeconomic Causes of Unemployment: Diagnosis and Policy Recommendations /: Makroökonomische Ursachen der Arbeitslosigkeit: Diagnose und Therapievorschläge. Duncker & Humblot, 1999. Book. https://doi.org/10.3790/978-3-428-49758-4
Filc, W, Köhler, C (eds.) (1999): Macroeconomic Causes of Unemployment: Diagnosis and Policy Recommendations /: Makroökonomische Ursachen der Arbeitslosigkeit: Diagnose und Therapievorschläge, Duncker & Humblot, [online] https://doi.org/10.3790/978-3-428-49758-4
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Macroeconomic Causes of Unemployment: Diagnosis and Policy Recommendations /
Makroökonomische Ursachen der Arbeitslosigkeit: Diagnose und Therapievorschläge
Editors: Filc, Wolfgang | Köhler, Claus
Veröffentlichungen des Instituts für Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung, Vol. 36
(1999)
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Abstract
This conference volume deals with one of the most severe economic, social and political problems major European economies face since the early nineties, the problem of lasting high unemployment. Contrary to the current German discussion, solely concentrating on microeconomic explanations and therapy recommendations, this volume presents papers based on various macro-economic points of view, showing different ways out of the employment crisis. Apart from renowned German economists, some well-known international academics participated in the 1998 Berlin symposium, to learn from experience in other countries.The first chapter contains the main standard textbook models and paradigms explaining lasting high unemployment. The question in the second chapter is if it is possible to fight unemployment with the help of macro policy on a purely national basis in the presence of global markets. The third chapter indicates possible effects of misalignments in financial markets on economic growth and employment. The contributions of the fourth chapter present experiences of other countries, which have succeeded in recent years in lowering their unemployment rates. The question at issue is, if these concepts can be transferred to Germany. The topics of the concluding chapter are practical macroeconomic starting points for sustainable employment growth in Europe. The methods contradict supply side arguments for the stabilisation of employment predominant in the German discussion. Attention is focused on relations between the role of monetary and fiscal policy in close conjunction with wage policy. Furthermore it is made evident that in global markets a theoretical macroeconomic concept as a base for sustainable employment is not very promising without enhanced international co-operation.
Table of Contents
| Section Title | Page | Action | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Contents | 5 | ||
| Editorial Introduction | 9 | ||
| I. Macroeconomics and Employment | 21 | ||
| Wolfgang Franz: Macroeconomics and Joblessness: An Introductory Statement | 23 | ||
| I. Basic Analytical Framework | 23 | ||
| II. Possible Sources of German Unemployment | 25 | ||
| 1. Sources Resulting from Wage Setting | 25 | ||
| 2. Sources Stemming from Labor Demand | 27 | ||
| 3. Transmission from Non-Structural Unemployment to Structural Unemployment | 28 | ||
| III. Conclusions | 28 | ||
| References | 29 | ||
| Rudolf Richter: Warum Arbeitslosigkeit? Antworten von Wirtschaftstheoretikern seit Keynes (1936) | 31 | ||
| I. Die klassische Antwort | 31 | ||
| II. Die Argumentation von Keynes | 33 | ||
| III. Die neoklassische Synthese | 35 | ||
| IV. Die Attacken von Friedman und Lucas | 36 | ||
| V. Verteidigungsstrategien der Neuen Keynesianer | 38 | ||
| VI. Fehlende Arbeitsplätze | 42 | ||
| VII. Arbeitslosigkeit aus polit-ökonomischer Sicht | 43 | ||
| VIII. Arbeitslosigkeit infolge der Kartellstruktur von Arbeitsmärkten: Industrie-Ökonomik der Arbeitslosigkeit | 44 | ||
| IX. Arbeitsmarkt und Arbeitslosigkeit aus Sicht der Neuen Institutionenökonomik | 47 | ||
| X. Zusammenfassung | 50 | ||
| Summary: Why Unemployment? Answers by Economists since Keynes (1936) | 54 | ||
| Literatur | 56 | ||
| Jan Priewe: Klassische und keynesianische Arbeitslosigkeit – eine Kritik hybrider Typologien | 59 | ||
| I. Die hybriden Typologien | 59 | ||
| II. Konjunkturelle und „capital shortage unemployment" | 62 | ||
| III. Neukeynesianische Ungleichgewichtstheorie: Malinvauds klassische und keynesianische Arbeitslosigkeit | 69 | ||
| IV. Natürliche und inflationsstabile Arbeitslosigkeit – klassische Arbeitslosigkeit? | 73 | ||
| V. Zu hohe Reallöhne und „Lohnlücke" – klassische Arbeitslosigkeit? | 78 | ||
| VI. Keynesianische Arbeitslosigkeit – zwei Varianten | 81 | ||
| Summary: Classical and Keynesian Unemployment – A Critique of Hybrid Topologies | 85 | ||
| II. Globalization and Employment | 87 | ||
| Hans-Joachim Heinemann: Nationale Beschäftigungspolitik bei globalisierten Märkten? | 89 | ||
| Summary | 95 | ||
| Literatur | 95 | ||
| Paul Davidson: Global Macro Policies for Reducing Persistent High Unemployment Rates in OECD Countries | 97 | ||
| I. The golden age of economic development | 97 | ||
| II. The lesson that should have been learned | 100 | ||
| III. The Post Keynesian explanation of persistently high OECD unemployment | 101 | ||
| IV. Why the law of comparative advantage is inapplicable to our global economy | 103 | ||
| V. Additional macroeconomic errors embedded in mainstream conventional wisdom | 104 | ||
| VI. Reforming the world’s monetary payment system | 105 | ||
| VII. A Post Keynesian international payments system | 108 | ||
| VIII. Conclusion | 114 | ||
| References | 115 | ||
| Henning Klodt: International Direct Investment: Export of Headquarter Services or Export of Jobs? | 117 | ||
| I. Introduction | 117 | ||
| II. Statistics on Foreign Direct Investment | 117 | ||
| The German Balance of Foreign Direct Investment by Different Statistical Sources | 117 | ||
| III. Theory of Multinational Firms | 120 | ||
| IV. Patterns of Foreign Direct Investment | 122 | ||
| V. Conclusions | 125 | ||
| References | 125 | ||
| III. Financial Markets and Employment | 127 | ||
| Alexander Juchems / Willi Leibfritz: Monetary Conditions and Fiscal Policy – A Comparison over Various Business Cycles and Different Phases of the Business Cycle | 129 | ||
| I. Unemployment and Business Cycle | 129 | ||
| II. Monetary Conditions and Fiscal-Policy in the Overall Business Cycle | 129 | ||
| 1. Description of Indicators | 130 | ||
| 2. Analytical Test of Indicator Performance | 135 | ||
| III. Monetary Conditions and Fiscal-Policy in Recessions | 137 | ||
| IV. Consequences for Economic Policy | 139 | ||
| Annex: Types of Currency Market Intervention | 140 | ||
| References | 142 | ||
| Peter Winker: Financing Constraints, Output and Employment. Lessons from Theory and Empirical Evidence on the Micro and Macro Level | 143 | ||
| I. Introduction | 143 | ||
| II. Financing Constraints at the Firm Level | 144 | ||
| 1. Causes for Financing Constraints | 144 | ||
| 2. Effects | 146 | ||
| III. An Aggregate View on Loan Markets | 150 | ||
| 1. Interest Rates | 150 | ||
| 2. Partial Analysis | 150 | ||
| 3. Total Analysis | 152 | ||
| IV. Macroeconomic Effects? | 157 | ||
| V. Conclusions | 158 | ||
| References | 159 | ||
| Summary | 160 | ||
| Michael Frömmel / Lukas Menkhoff: The Informational Efficiency of Financial Markets and Macroeconomic Equilibrium | 163 | ||
| I. Introduction | 163 | ||
| II. On the testing of informationally efficient financial markets | 164 | ||
| 1. The concept of informational efficiency | 164 | ||
| 2. Measuring informational efficiency | 165 | ||
| 3. Are past prices used efficiently? | 169 | ||
| 4. Interim summary | 171 | ||
| III. Implications of informational efficiency and surveys on behavior | 172 | ||
| 1. Questionnaire approach methodology | 172 | ||
| 2. The concrete questioning of foreign exchange market participants | 173 | ||
| 3. The type of information considered | 174 | ||
| 4. The way of information processing | 176 | ||
| 5. The institutional environment | 178 | ||
| 6. Interim summary | 179 | ||
| IV. Options for economic policy | 180 | ||
| References | 183 | ||
| Summary | 185 | ||
| Zusammenfassung | 185 | ||
| IV. Country Studies and Country Comparisons | 187 | ||
| Lothar Funk: Labour Market Dynamics in Western Europe and the USA | 189 | ||
| I. Introduction | 189 | ||
| II. Different paths of economic development in the U.S. and Western Europe: The stylized facts of unemployment and employment growth | 192 | ||
| III. The role of the demand side: Is hysteresis or are institutional rigidities mainly responsible for persistent European unemployment? | 194 | ||
| IV. The interaction between demand- and supply-side policies | 204 | ||
| V. Lessons from the United Kingdom and the Netherlands for Germany | 206 | ||
| VI. Some concluding reform proposals for Germany | 218 | ||
| References | 222 | ||
| Michael Heise / Mathias Moersch: Micro and Macro Determinants of Unemployment. A Comparison of Trends in the United States and Germany | 227 | ||
| I. Introduction | 227 | ||
| II. High unemployment in Europe is not due to slower growth or demographic changes | 228 | ||
| III. Structural differences | 232 | ||
| 1. Wage differentiation and mobility of the labour | 232 | ||
| 2. Collective wage bargaining systems – less organisation and centralisation, less corporatism in the U.S. | 234 | ||
| 3. Business dynamism and venture capital markets | 236 | ||
| IV. Macroeconomic analysis of unemployment | 237 | ||
| 1. Wage development and labour intensity of the growth process | 237 | ||
| 2. Employment effects of monetary policy | 239 | ||
| a) The natural rate | 239 | ||
| b) Monetary policy | 240 | ||
| c) Implications for the country comparison | 242 | ||
| V. Summary | 243 | ||
| References | 243 | ||
| Arne Heise: Unemployment in Germany and Britain – A Question of Micro-Rigidities or Macro-Obstruction? | 245 | ||
| I. An introduction to deregulation and flexibility | 245 | ||
| II. Britain and Germany: Prototyps of flexibility and sklerosis? | 246 | ||
| III. Testing neo-liberal hypotheses | 248 | ||
| IV. Macroeconomics of comparative labour market developments | 258 | ||
| V. Conclusions | 265 | ||
| Literature | 267 | ||
| Wayne Simpson / Norman Cameron: Reducing Unemployment in an Era of Low Inflationary Expectations | 271 | ||
| I. Introduction | 271 | ||
| II. Do Canadians Resist Pay Cuts during Low Inflation? | 273 | ||
| III. Can Pay Cut Resistance Affect Employment? | 276 | ||
| IV. Evidence on the Employment Effects of Pay Cut Resistance | 278 | ||
| V. The Impact of Pay Cut Resistance on Unemployment | 281 | ||
| VI. Is Hypoinflation Worth the Unemployment Cost? | 283 | ||
| References | 284 | ||
| Appendix: A Bargaining Model with Pay Cut Resistance | 284 | ||
| V. Macroeconomic Policy Designs to Regain High Employment | 289 | ||
| Attiat F. Ott: Effects of a Change in Policy Rules on the Growth of the Economy: Temporary versus Permanent Effects | 291 | ||
| I. Introduction | 291 | ||
| II. Stylized Facts of Growth | 292 | ||
| III. Growth Models and their Quantitative Predictions | 295 | ||
| 1. The Neoclassical Model | 295 | ||
| 2. Convergence: Absolute and Conditional | 298 | ||
| 3. Endogenous Growth | 301 | ||
| IV. Policy Rules and Economic Growth | 305 | ||
| 1. Policy Rules: Feedback Versus Fixed Rules | 309 | ||
| 2. Transitory and Permanent Effects | 310 | ||
| 3. Budget Policy and Productivity Growth | 311 | ||
| V. Empirical Analysis | 313 | ||
| References | 323 | ||
| Loek Groot / Ronald Schettkat: Does Structure Matter? The Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth | 327 | ||
| I. Introduction | 327 | ||
| II. Brief discussion of some unbalanced productivity growth models | 327 | ||
| III. Simulation models | 332 | ||
| IV. Concluding summary | 341 | ||
| Appendix | 345 | ||
| Bibliography | 345 | ||
| Ewald Nowotny: The Role of Macroeconomic Policy in Overcoming Slow Economic Growth. International Comparisons and Policy Perspectives | 347 | ||
| I. Economic Growth and Labour Markets in Europe | 347 | ||
| II. The Growth Perspective – the Central Role of Interest Rates | 347 | ||
| III. Economic Growth and Employment | 354 | ||
| 1. General View | 354 | ||
| 2. Wage Shares, Wage Flexibility and Employment | 354 | ||
| 3. Productivity and the Service Sector | 358 | ||
| IV. The Austrian Experience – Macroeconomic Perspectives | 359 | ||
| Literature | 363 | ||
| Carl-Ludwig Holtfrerich: Economic Policy Targeting, Policy Mix and (Un-)Employment | 365 | ||
| I. Okun’s Law | 365 | ||
| II. Supply-side measures | 366 | ||
| III. Fiscal policy under the Maastricht Treaty | 366 | ||
| IV. Policy mix and policy results | 368 | ||
| V. Conclusions | 376 | ||
| Heinz-Peter Spahn: Central Bankers, Games and Markets. A Critical Assessment of the Microeconomic Optimization Approach in the Theory of Macroeconomic Stabilization | 379 | ||
| I. A heyday of the theory of monetary policy? | 379 | ||
| II. The macroeconomic policy framework of the Barro-Gordon model | 381 | ||
| III. Central bankers on the problem of time inconsistency | 384 | ||
| IV. Looking at the facts: Causes of and policies against inflation | 387 | ||
| V. How to cope with supply constraints and unemployment | 392 | ||
| VI. Real determinants of the nominal anchor or non-neutrality of monetary policy? | 396 | ||
| VII. Summary: Six propositions | 399 | ||
| References | 399 | ||
| Hans-Jürgen Krupp / Karen Cabos: The Impact of Monetary Policy on Employment | 405 | ||
| I. The relationship between monetary policy and employment policy | 405 | ||
| II. Empirical studies on the real effects of monetary policy | 408 | ||
| III. Theoretical attempts at an explanation | 412 | ||
| IV. Monetary policy in the context of European Monetary Union | 416 | ||
| References | 417 | ||
| Gustav A. Horn: Zur Koordination von Geld- und Lohnpolitik. Eine empirische Analyse für die USA und Deutschland | 419 | ||
| I. Einleitung | 419 | ||
| II. Zur Interaktion von Geld- und Lohnpolitik | 421 | ||
| III. Ein System interdependenter Lohn- und monetärer Entwicklungen | 424 | ||
| 1. Die Variablen | 424 | ||
| 2. Zur Reihung der Variablen | 425 | ||
| 3. Die Darstellung des VAR Systems | 426 | ||
| 4. Zu den Schätzungen des VAR Systems | 427 | ||
| IV. Die Resultate | 428 | ||
| 1. VAR Systeme für die USA und Deutschland | 428 | ||
| 2. Die Ausrichtung der Geldpolitik | 430 | ||
| 3. Die Ausrichtung der Lohnentwicklung | 434 | ||
| V. Schlußfolgerungen für die Koordination von Geld- und Lohnpolitik | 437 | ||
| Literaturverzeichnis | 438 | ||
| Editors and Authors | 441 |